Is This a Good Time of Year to Sell?

by MITCH DIETZ

At this time of year, I am commonly asked by clients interested in selling their homes, “Should we wait until spring to list our home?”

This question is often rhetorical. There is a common belief that the fewer number of buyers during the winter means it is a less opportune time to sell.

During the winter months there are fewer buyers.  However, there are two facts that challenge that perception.  First, the number of home buyers is not dramatically different from that in the summer.  For example, December of last year had 23% fewer buyers than July 2012 (212 and 276, respectively).  Definitely a drop, but not as much as we find most people expect.

Second, and perhaps most importantly, the ratio of buyers to sellers stays relatively constant throughout the year.  Spring and summer months see more buyers, but there are also more sellers competing for their attention.

The ratio of buyers to sellers in July of 2012 was 29%.  In December, it was 25%.  Again, a slight drop off from the summer buyer-seller ratio, but it is not dramatic.

Our chart shows that in many years since 2000 there was actually a better ratio of buyers to sellers during the winter months.  If someone really wants to sell and get into that next home, these figures demonstrate that winter is not a bad time from purely a market perspective.

However, our advice to sellers is never a stock answer because every person’s situation is unique.  If the move is more optional, then there are other practical considerations.  For instance, is the homeowner OK with prospective buyers coming through the house during the holidays?  Will the house show better in the spring months, with the garden growing, or simply more daylight highlighting the home?  In many cases, waiting until after the New Year to market the home is advisable.

Currently, the market overall still slightly favors sellers.  At a 4.4 month supply of homes (four to six months is considered balanced), this is one of the better markets we have seen over the past six years.  Buyers are taking advantage of prices and interest rates, both of which are on the way up.  Even if sellers do wait until after the holidays, most won’t wait until spring to get their home on the market.

Note: Local statistics compiled by Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty, Inc. from Northwest MLS Data. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

On The Road to Home Price Rebound

by MITCH DIETZ

Does anyone else miss the old-fashioned paper road map?  Images of a childhood family road-trip come to mind, unfolding the map in the front seat of the station wagon to chart the route of some great new adventure.

The map is a great thing because its maker is assuring that even though the road is unfamiliar, it will nevertheless lead to the desired destination.  There is something comforting knowing that someone else has charted out the course.

In real estate, we have certain road maps.  We know from past experience that trends in the number of home sales precede trends in home prices.  Between 18 and 24 months after a change in number of sales, home prices begin to follow that path just charted. 

For this reason, it is important that we chart the progress of the number of sales.  In the spring of 2012 we began reporting that home sales were on the rise.  Now, 18 months later we have a well-established trend of rising sales.  Home buyers are back. They have purchased 26% more homes than during the same period in 2011.

As a result, prices are now escalating.  Over the past three months, we have seen steady gains in average sales price. (See Chart above).  While this is not a long pattern, it is more evidence that we are on the right road to sustained recovery.  If current trends continue, we should be back to the steady, familiar place our market has long enjoyed – - healthy, modest gains in home prices.

Now, if I could just remember how to refold that road map.  On second thought, maybe I’ll just rely on Google Maps.